The German economy in April 2020 – and the waves roll in…

As foreseen last, month, the Corona-Pandemic has inded cut into the German economy like a hot knife through an ice-cake – and it does not look good. But hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in April 2020 – and the waves roll in…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in March 2020 – in anticipation….

The Corona-Pandemic is cutting through the global economy like a hot knife through an ice-cake – and the German economy is awaiting its „cut“ from the overall cake, so to say (or to stick last months parlour (here): awaiting its piece of sh*** coming back from the fan). But hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in March 2020 – in anticipation….“ weiterlesen

The German economy in February 2020 – when TSHTF!

So, although with a view to the ongoing meltdown in the global economy it might seem a little odd to look at last months figures, this makes sense – if only to ascertain the status before TSHTF. Since, even before the virus really hit, the German economy remained in a rather fragile state, as the January monthly showed (here). But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in February 2020 – when TSHTF!“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing 13. März 2020 – Sparkassen // Insolvenzantragspflichten // Zombies

Was war das denn gestern? Die EZB-Chefin verkündet ein Rettungspaket (hier und hier) und der DAX erleidet den zweithöchsten Verlust seiner Gesichte (-12,24% (!) hier); die Fed verkündet „QE to infinity“ (hier) – und der Dow Jones crasht um ebenfalls rekordverdächtige nahezu 10% (hier). Und: Warum ist denn niemand auf die Idee gekommen, mal den Handel nicht nur zeitweise (wie in den USA geschehen) auszusetzen, wie bei anderen Crashs? Entweder wurden die ganzen „Masters of the Universe“ von den Ereignissen überrollt oder Ihnen kommt die Ausrede „Corona“ für einen Markt-Reset ganz gelegen. Beides allerdings keine Begründungen, die mir Vertrauen einflößen.

„Morning Briefing 13. März 2020 – Sparkassen // Insolvenzantragspflichten // Zombies“ weiterlesen

The German economy in January 2020 – before the virus hits

While the last „Monthlies“ pointed to a plateauing of the German economy (cf. here and here), the beginning of January marked the point where everybody began to take the threats emanating from the Corona-virus seriously. However, since the economic impact was only starting to gain traction, it is quite interesting to see how the German economy evolved prior to this crucial chain of events. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in January 2020 – before the virus hits“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in December 2019 – step by step…

The small ray of light, posted in my Monthly of last month (here) seem to get stronger (by the month). But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German Economy in December 2019 – step by step…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in November 2019 – ready to (re-)launch?

Throughout 2019 I never thought, that I’d post this title at the end of the year. However, given the developments of the last two months (September – plateau already? / October – against all odds) it seems appropriate. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in November 2019 – ready to (re-)launch?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in October 2019 – against all odds…

… seems to be an appropriate title for this month monthly: Given the last minute’s escape from a „technical recession“, combined with the latest data, last month’s asssessment that a plateau to the recession might be nigh (cf. here), is actually supported. However, some crucial facts and my gut-feeling (sorry, this is not really scientific, I know) point in another direction. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in October 2019 – against all odds…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in September 2019 – plateau already?

Although some indices have improved since August (cf. my earlier report, here), the overall picture of the German economy is still grim. Is this the highly awaited plateau or rather a short breathing-space due to the annual „autumn recovery“? Before trying to answer this question, let’s look into the German economy in more details:

„The German economy in September 2019 – plateau already?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in August 2019 – downhill we go…

As a blogger-colleague colourfully pointed out recently, if people in the locker-room of a swimming pool start to talk about „recession“ and „inverted yield curve“, the recession „is mainstream“. Accordingly, even German forecasting instutions, rather (in)famous for not spotting recessions correctly, are at least now considering an – albeit short – recession for Germany (namely, the „Institut für Weltwirtschaft“ (IfW), cf. here). Hence, the question is not, if and when the crisis will hit the German economy (as asked last month, here), but how hard and how long the impact will be and last. And this is a rather difficult question. But, let’s look into it in some more detail:

„The German economy in August 2019 – downhill we go…“ weiterlesen