The German economy in March 2019 – touching (at) base?

While in February, the German economy presented disappointing early indicators (here), March 2019 seemed to confirm the downturn. However, as we will see, between end of March and now mid-April the business climate changed somewhat:

„The German economy in March 2019 – touching (at) base?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators

In February 2019, the German economy – if not paralysed (as in the last month, cf. here) – presented disappointing early indicators such as orders and production while other (rather lagging) indicators such as unemployment or corporate insolvencies still show record-low-levels. Let’s look at the development in more detail: 

„The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators“ weiterlesen

The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?

Although indications that the German economy ended 2018 in negative territory kept piling up (cf. here for the previous month), the sentiment indicators’s downward path of earlier months accelerate in sync with the industrial production and orders, Destatis just announced that the German economy „only“ stalled in the last quarter of 2018. Let’s look at the development in more detail: 

„The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?

First of all, I wish all of you a Happy New Year and hope that you had a Merry Christmas with some time to lay back and relax after a year of relentless growth in Germany. The new year, though, does not paint a too glossy picture: Not all figures are in, but it seems that the economy stopped growing at the end of 2018. Also the sentiment-indicators are now facing south in sync and for months in a row and the DAX has reached „bear-territory“ at the end of the year.  „The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…

The implicit forecast of my last monthly report, „southbound“ (cf. here) has not really materialised in November. Although leading pundits reduced their forecast for German growth and the DAX did lose another roughly 200 points, exports remain rather strong, jobless-figures are unbelievably low, etc. Hence, also the decline takes some time. But see for yourself:

„The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 12. Dezember 2018 – Exporte // Pleiten // Sentiment

IMG_5632 (2)(Quelle: Schatzi)

Guten Morgen,

Während die Politik  – einem „Käfig voller Narren“ nicht unähnlich – durch die wahrscheinlich wichtigste Phase der Weltpolitik seit dem 2. Weltkrieg stolpert, ist sich die deutsche Wirtschaft scheinbar noch nicht so sicher, wohin die Reise geht. Die Gefühls-Indizes sind uneinheitlich, während die harten Fakten zumindest für Deutschland sehr positiv aussehen. Weltweit aber fallen einige maßgeblichen Indizes seit längerem und eher drastisch: So der Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, der Kupfer– oder der Ölpreis. Sprich, für Deutschland sieht es (noch) gut aus, für die Weltwirtschaft eher weniger. Und diese Entwicklung wird an Deutschland als Exportnation nicht spurlos vorbeigehen. „Morning Briefing – 12. Dezember 2018 – Exporte // Pleiten // Sentiment“ weiterlesen

The German economy in October 2018 – southbound

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Yep, as predicted in my last monthly report, „(economic) autumn“ (cf. here) has finally arrived in Germany. Amid political tensions after Chancellor Merkel announced her demise as leader of Germany’s conservative party, there is mounting evidence that the German economy has peaked somewhere in the previous months. But let’s have a closer look at the details:  „The German economy in October 2018 – southbound“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing 6. November 2018 – M&A // NPLs // Aktienrückkäufe

IMG_5632 (2)(Quelle: Schatzi) 

Guten Morgen,

Der IFO-Geschäftsklima-Index bricht ein (hier), die Börsen kommen bestenfalls nicht vom Fleck und auch sonst scheint der übliche Herbstaufschwung zumindest zu stottern. Das liegt aber auch an diversen eher negativen „Fundamentals“, wie die nachfolgende Übersicht zeigt:   „Morning Briefing 6. November 2018 – M&A // NPLs // Aktienrückkäufe“ weiterlesen

The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?

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Well, the German economy is currently doing well, when you look at the figures for exports, unemployment or industrial orders. However, from the perspective of inflation or industrial production it does not look to great. The outlook for the foreseeable future, however, seems to be rather measly, if you agree with our government. Hence, after a not-so-clear August (here), the September might prove to be the start of an economic autumn, as the following figures show:  „The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 28. August 2018 – Target 2 // EM-Krise // Shareholder Value

IMG_5632 (2)(Quelle: Schatzi)

Guten Morgen,

Zum Ende des Sommerlochs bestimmen gegenläufige Meldungen den Zeitungshimmel: Während die türkische Lira weiter abschmiert (hier), die Krise dort also ungebremst weitergeht, stieg der IFO-Geschäftsklimaindex (unerwartet) nach neun Monaten Abschwung um 2,1 auf 103,8 Punkte (hier). Er ist damit aber noch entfernt vom vorherigen Höchststand von 105,3 Punkte im November 2017. Scheinbar haben sich die USA und Mexico auf eine Neuauflage des Nafta-Abkommens geeinigt, es darf wohl nur nicht so heißen (hier). Vielleicht hat Henrik Müller  bei SPON ja doch recht – und „alles wird gut“ (hier).  „Morning Briefing – 28. August 2018 – Target 2 // EM-Krise // Shareholder Value“ weiterlesen