The German economy in July 2019 – Recession ahead?

Returning from the summer holidays, the German economy does not look any better than in the previous month (here). The German GDP showing a (mild) contraction in the second quarter (cf. below), proves right the gloomy outlook of this post since September of last year (here). But, let’s look into it in some more detail:

„The German economy in July 2019 – Recession ahead?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in June 2019 – summertime

Going into the summer (holidays) the outlook for the German economy is not good – to put it neutral: As already sketched out in May (here), Germany’s economic data shows some severe cracks and it seems indeed that the (recessionary) train is now advancing fast. Let’s look into it in some more detail:

„The German economy in June 2019 – summertime“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 27. Juni 2019 – Konjunktur // Angstbarometer // Transportindizes

Guten Morgen,

Gestern stoppte das Thermometer bei 38,6° C (hier). Das ist echt nicht mehr witzig. Derweil hofft „der Markt“ zumindest auf eine kleine Abkühlung im Handelsstreit zwischen den USA und China beim bevorstehenden G20-Gipfel in Japan (hier). In Deutschland hätten wir derzeit  volkswirtschaftlich aber wohl eher eine Erwärmung nötig, wie ein Blick auf die aktuelle Lage, aber auch die Zukunftsaussichten zeigt: Nicht nur der IFO-Geschäftsklimaindex ist auf seinen Tiefststand seit November 2014 gefallen (hier):

„Morning Briefing – 27. Juni 2019 – Konjunktur // Angstbarometer // Transportindizes“ weiterlesen

The German economy in May 2019 – severe cracks

It seems that the silver lining at Germany’s economic sky in March (here) and April (here) were indeed nothing more as the lights of the (recessionary) train advancing fast. Already a superficial review of Germany’s economic data shows some severe cracks in the success story of the last years – although it still stands to question whether an actual downturn is already „around the corner“. Still some indicators (insolvencies, ZEW) are positive:

„The German economy in May 2019 – severe cracks“ weiterlesen

The German economy in April 2019 – Recovery! Really?

The silver lining at Germany’s economic sky anticipated in my March monthly (here) got even brighter in April 2019. But, as we will see in the following, the positive development hinges on particular factors, which might not last long. But let’s go through the data in the usual order:

„The German economy in April 2019 – Recovery! Really?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in March 2019 – touching (at) base?

While in February, the German economy presented disappointing early indicators (here), March 2019 seemed to confirm the downturn. However, as we will see, between end of March and now mid-April the business climate changed somewhat:

„The German economy in March 2019 – touching (at) base?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators

In February 2019, the German economy – if not paralysed (as in the last month, cf. here) – presented disappointing early indicators such as orders and production while other (rather lagging) indicators such as unemployment or corporate insolvencies still show record-low-levels. Let’s look at the development in more detail: 

„The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators“ weiterlesen

The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?

Although indications that the German economy ended 2018 in negative territory kept piling up (cf. here for the previous month), the sentiment indicators’s downward path of earlier months accelerate in sync with the industrial production and orders, Destatis just announced that the German economy „only“ stalled in the last quarter of 2018. Let’s look at the development in more detail: 

„The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?

First of all, I wish all of you a Happy New Year and hope that you had a Merry Christmas with some time to lay back and relax after a year of relentless growth in Germany. The new year, though, does not paint a too glossy picture: Not all figures are in, but it seems that the economy stopped growing at the end of 2018. Also the sentiment-indicators are now facing south in sync and for months in a row and the DAX has reached „bear-territory“ at the end of the year.  „The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…

The implicit forecast of my last monthly report, „southbound“ (cf. here) has not really materialised in November. Although leading pundits reduced their forecast for German growth and the DAX did lose another roughly 200 points, exports remain rather strong, jobless-figures are unbelievably low, etc. Hence, also the decline takes some time. But see for yourself:

„The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…“ weiterlesen