Morning Briefing 25. Juni 2020 – IWF // OECD // IFO-Geschäftsklimaindex

Guten Morgen,

Die causa Wirecard entwickelt sich zu einer schlechten Ausgabe alter Heldensagen: Der gefallene Held (Braun) muss Aktien verkaufen, um seine Kaution zu stellen (hier), während sein treuer Knecht () erst mal in den Sonnenuntergang – vulgo auf die Philippinen – reitet, um den heiligen Gral (fehlende Euro 1,9 Mrd.) wieder zu finden, um den erzürnten König (in der multipolaren Form des Herr Finanzminister Scholz (hier), des Präsidenten des BaFin Hufeld (hier) und Frau Staatsanwältin Hildegard Bäumler-Hösl (hier)) zu besänftigen. Derweil fragen sich einige Knappen der Ritterrunde, wieso der Rest überhaupt an den Gral geglaubt hat, es sei doch eh alles Blendwerk gewesen (hier). Ich bin mir sicher, demnächst können wir in dieser causa auch „Des Kaisers neue Kleider“ nachspielen – mit den selben schlechten Schauspielern….

„Morning Briefing 25. Juni 2020 – IWF // OECD // IFO-Geschäftsklimaindex“ weiterlesen

The German economy in May 2020 – bottomed out yet?

Throughout the last month, the bad news kept indeed (cf. here) constantly flowing in like waves on a beach. Given the easing of the lockdown and the first tentative steps to reopen the economy at the end of May the question is whether the German economy already bottomed out. To get a grip on that, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in May 2020 – bottomed out yet?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in April 2020 – and the waves roll in…

As foreseen last, month, the Corona-Pandemic has inded cut into the German economy like a hot knife through an ice-cake – and it does not look good. But hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in April 2020 – and the waves roll in…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in March 2020 – in anticipation….

The Corona-Pandemic is cutting through the global economy like a hot knife through an ice-cake – and the German economy is awaiting its „cut“ from the overall cake, so to say (or to stick last months parlour (here): awaiting its piece of sh*** coming back from the fan). But hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in March 2020 – in anticipation….“ weiterlesen

The German economy in February 2020 – when TSHTF!

So, although with a view to the ongoing meltdown in the global economy it might seem a little odd to look at last months figures, this makes sense – if only to ascertain the status before TSHTF. Since, even before the virus really hit, the German economy remained in a rather fragile state, as the January monthly showed (here). But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in February 2020 – when TSHTF!“ weiterlesen

The German economy in January 2020 – before the virus hits

While the last „Monthlies“ pointed to a plateauing of the German economy (cf. here and here), the beginning of January marked the point where everybody began to take the threats emanating from the Corona-virus seriously. However, since the economic impact was only starting to gain traction, it is quite interesting to see how the German economy evolved prior to this crucial chain of events. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in January 2020 – before the virus hits“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 28. Januar 2020 – Baltic Dry // Cass Freight // Chinese Containerized

Guten Morgen,

Noch am Wochenende schickte mir ein Partner (Danke nst) folgende Meldung des Handelsblatts (wer sonst?):“Charttechniker rechnen mit einem Dax-Anstieg auf 15.000 Punkte„. Was passiert am Montag? Der Dax schmiert um 2,74% ab. Ok, nicht nur wegen des Coronavirus (der sich immer schneller ausbreitet (hier), sondern auch wegen des nicht erwarteten Rückgangs des IFO-Geschäftsklimaindex (hier). Da die Daten für den Index aber eher vor dem großen Medienhype zum Coronavirus erhoben wurden, dürfte selbst ohne den Virus die deutsche Wirtschaft zum Jahresanfang nicht so richtig in Partylaune gewesen sein.  Aber übers Jahr gesehen würde ich die Prognose des HB nicht für falsch halten – pumpen doch die Zentralbanken eh Geld ins System. Die werden nur eine kleine Korrektur zulassen und dann die Schleusen wieder öffnen (so auch Morgan Stanley, hier).

„Morning Briefing – 28. Januar 2020 – Baltic Dry // Cass Freight // Chinese Containerized“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in December 2019 – step by step…

The small ray of light, posted in my Monthly of last month (here) seem to get stronger (by the month). But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German Economy in December 2019 – step by step…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in November 2019 – ready to (re-)launch?

Throughout 2019 I never thought, that I’d post this title at the end of the year. However, given the developments of the last two months (September – plateau already? / October – against all odds) it seems appropriate. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in November 2019 – ready to (re-)launch?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in October 2019 – against all odds…

… seems to be an appropriate title for this month monthly: Given the last minute’s escape from a „technical recession“, combined with the latest data, last month’s asssessment that a plateau to the recession might be nigh (cf. here), is actually supported. However, some crucial facts and my gut-feeling (sorry, this is not really scientific, I know) point in another direction. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

„The German economy in October 2019 – against all odds…“ weiterlesen