So, I am behind everything – due to the worsening economic situation in Germany I did not only have not time to write my ususal monthly before Christmas, but also not over Christmas! Hence, with the ususal apologies and without further adue I jump right in, where I left in November (here):
No data was available regarding the development of the German GDP, however, even the German Ministry of Economics had to concede that the current situation is rather doomy (here, in German).
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here), followed a zig-zag-course through most of November, starting at 7,397 points on 1 November bottoming out at 7,300 points on 13 November before starting ist cometic rise (which would last to December) on 20 November, ending the month with 7,539 points.
German industrial orders, again, lost ground: after continually decreasing since March, orders increased by +3.9% (MoM, but still -11.8 YoY) in June and by +2.9% (MoM and also by +3.7% YoY) in July, declining by -5.8% (MoM, -3.9% YoY) in August, before again gaining 4.2% (MoM, also +1.0% YoY) in September, but again losing 1.5% (MoM, but +5.7% YoY) in October 2024. Also, Germany’s industrial production lost futherground: after increasing by +1.4% (MoM, but still -4.1% YoY) in June, again decreasing by -2.4% (MoM, even -5.3% YoY) in July, before again increasing by 2.9% (MoM, but -2.7% YoY) in August, production sank by -2.5% (MoM, even -4.6% YoY) in September and by another -1,0% (MoM, even -4.5% YoY) in October 2024. Finally, also, German exports further decreased: after decreasing by -3.4% (MoM, even 4.4% YoY) in June before increasing by +1.7% (MoM, but still -1.2% YoY) in July and by a further 1.3% (MoM, +0.1% YoY) in August, exports again decreased by -1.7% (MoM, -0.2% YoY) in September and by another -2.8% (MoM, -2.8% YoY) in October 2024. For other German KPI’s, I refer you to the „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here).
The German Target 2 balance gained Euro 2bn 2024 and ended at Euro 1,066bn. The German inflation-rate stopped its decline: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September but has sice re-increased to, first, 2.0% in October and 2.2% in November 2024 (each YoY).
The German Labor market did move a little in November: After the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% in August and declined slightly to 6.0% in September, it remained at 6.0% in October and declined to 5.9% in November 2024 (all MoM). There against, German insolvency filings now increased 18 uninterrrupted times in a row until: After 3.1% in May, 13.9% in June, 23.8% in July, 13.8% in August, 19.5% in September, 22.4% in October, 18,8% in November and 12.3% in December 2023, 26.2% in January, 18.1% in February, 12.3% in March, 28.5% in April, 25.9% in May, a „mere“ 6.3% in June, 13.5% in July, 10.7% in August, 13.7% in September and 22.9% in October 2024 (all YoY; cf. my then most recent comment, here, in German). I will hopefully be able to add these figures at a later stage.
The leading German sentiment indicators, were, all in sync: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) did not budge and remained at 43.0 points on 2 December 2024. Also, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations lost 5.7 points and fell back to 7.4 points in November 2024. Also, the ifo Business Climate Index lost 0.8 points and ended at 85.7 points in November2024. There against, the GfK-consumer index, recovered further and increased by 1.6 points to -18.4 points in November 2024.
To sum up: October, indeed, proved the rule that „nothing goes to heck in a straight line“ – not even the German economy. While October presented some kind of hope, the downward trend of the German economy rekindled in November. Overall, the German economy is now well behind the curve in ecomomic terms compared to the rest of Europe or the USA. And there is no real end in sight.