The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…

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The implicit forecast of my last monthly report, „southbound“ (cf. here) has not really materialised in November. Although leading pundits reduced their forecast for German growth and the DAX did lose another roughly 200 points, exports remain rather strong, jobless-figures are unbelievably low, etc. Hence, also the decline takes some time. But see for yourself:

„The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in October 2018 – southbound

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Yep, as predicted in my last monthly report, „(economic) autumn“ (cf. here) has finally arrived in Germany. Amid political tensions after Chancellor Merkel announced here demise as leader of Germany’s conservative party, there is mounting evidence that the German economy has peaked somewhere in the previous months. But let’s have a closer look at the details:  „The German economy in October 2018 – southbound“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 5. November 2018 – Wettbewerbsfähigkeit // Inflation // Arbeitslosigkeit

IMG_5632 (2)(Quelle: Schatzi)

Guten Morgen,

Eine Woche Urlaub tut gut – auch weil man mal Abstand zum täglichen Trott gewinnt. Aber auch in der vergangenen Woche habe ich natürlich die Wirtschaft verfolgt. Die Börsen agieren weiter volatil, so weit so erwartbar. Aber, was spielt sich dahinter ab? „Dank“ Problemen bei der Abgaskontrolle gibt es erste Gerüchte, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft im dritten Quartal geschrumpft sei (hier). Unabhängig davon weist die nun weit über der Zielmarke der EZB liegende Inflationsrate auf einen zukünftig steigenden Preisdruck hin, der der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit Deutschlands doch eine Delle versetzen könnte. Dann wäre es mit dem derzeitigen Job-Wunder wohl auch zügig vorbei. Aktuell aber können wir in der niedrigsten Arbeitslosenquote seit 37 Jahren schwelgen!  „Morning Briefing – 5. November 2018 – Wettbewerbsfähigkeit // Inflation // Arbeitslosigkeit“ weiterlesen

The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?

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Well, the German economy is currently doing well, when you look at the figures for exports, unemployment or industrial orders. However, from the perspective of inflation or industrial production it does not look to great. The outlook for the foreseeable future, however, seems to be rather measly, if you agree with our government. Hence, after a not-so-clear August (here), the September might prove to be the start of an economic autumn, as the following figures show:  „The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in June 2018 – mixed picture

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The „cracks“ in the German economy described in May seem to widen in some areas, but to heal in others. Hence, a crash is at least not imminent from the early warning indicators, June rather presents a mixed picture: „The German economy in June 2018 – mixed picture“ weiterlesen

The German economy in March 2018 – Weakness ahead?

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Also in comparison with February, March 2018 does not seem to be the month of recovery but rather a mixed bag if not the first signal of another bumby road ahead: „The German economy in March 2018 – Weakness ahead?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in February 2018 – a dent only?

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Well, well, at least, we will soon have a new government. That is the good news for the month. The economy, though, did not do so well in the last month, especially in comparison with January 2018: „The German economy in February 2018 – a dent only?“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 11. Oktober 2017 //Akademiker-Arbeitslosigkeit // Kaufhof // Sears

Morning

Guten Morgen,

So, heute etwas verspätet, da ich bei einem Vortrag zu „Blackout“ – Stromversorgung in Deutschland war. Den Post dazu schaffe ich hoffentlich bis Morgen. „Morning Briefing – 11. Oktober 2017 //Akademiker-Arbeitslosigkeit // Kaufhof // Sears“ weiterlesen