The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators

In February 2019, the German economy – if not paralysed (as in the last month, cf. here) – presented disappointing early indicators such as orders and production while other (rather lagging) indicators such as unemployment or corporate insolvencies still show record-low-levels. Let’s look at the development in more detail: 

„The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators“ weiterlesen

The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?

Although indications that the German economy ended 2018 in negative territory kept piling up (cf. here for the previous month), the sentiment indicators’s downward path of earlier months accelerate in sync with the industrial production and orders, Destatis just announced that the German economy „only“ stalled in the last quarter of 2018. Let’s look at the development in more detail: 

„The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?

First of all, I wish all of you a Happy New Year and hope that you had a Merry Christmas with some time to lay back and relax after a year of relentless growth in Germany. The new year, though, does not paint a too glossy picture: Not all figures are in, but it seems that the economy stopped growing at the end of 2018. Also the sentiment-indicators are now facing south in sync and for months in a row and the DAX has reached „bear-territory“ at the end of the year.  „The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…

The implicit forecast of my last monthly report, „southbound“ (cf. here) has not really materialised in November. Although leading pundits reduced their forecast for German growth and the DAX did lose another roughly 200 points, exports remain rather strong, jobless-figures are unbelievably low, etc. Hence, also the decline takes some time. But see for yourself:

„The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…“ weiterlesen

The German economy in October 2018 – southbound

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Yep, as predicted in my last monthly report, „(economic) autumn“ (cf. here) has finally arrived in Germany. Amid political tensions after Chancellor Merkel announced her demise as leader of Germany’s conservative party, there is mounting evidence that the German economy has peaked somewhere in the previous months. But let’s have a closer look at the details:  „The German economy in October 2018 – southbound“ weiterlesen

The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?

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Well, the German economy is currently doing well, when you look at the figures for exports, unemployment or industrial orders. However, from the perspective of inflation or industrial production it does not look to great. The outlook for the foreseeable future, however, seems to be rather measly, if you agree with our government. Hence, after a not-so-clear August (here), the September might prove to be the start of an economic autumn, as the following figures show:  „The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in August 2018 – only a summer break?

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Again, it is not really easy to discern a clear picture of the German economy’s status in August. Probably due to the holiday season (which extended until late August), the statistics might, as in July (cf. here), prove to be somewhat misleading:

„The German economy in August 2018 – only a summer break?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in July 2018 – statistics and sentiment indicators (never) lie!

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The mixed picture described for the German economy in June continues in July – also to some apparent issues with statistical accuracy:

„The German economy in July 2018 – statistics and sentiment indicators (never) lie!“ weiterlesen

The German economy in June 2018 – mixed picture

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The „cracks“ in the German economy described in May seem to widen in some areas, but to heal in others. Hence, a crash is at least not imminent from the early warning indicators, June rather presents a mixed picture: „The German economy in June 2018 – mixed picture“ weiterlesen

The German economy in May 2018 – first cracks

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So, after the „plateau“ in April, it seems that the German economy experiences the first real signs of a possible downswing: „The German economy in May 2018 – first cracks“ weiterlesen