On this very day ten years ago, on 29th July 2016, I posted my first „Monthly“ (here). Well, I never thought, that this would be my most long-lasting series, but here we are. And again, it’s close to the end of the month, so without further self-praise let’s dive right into it:
No real news about the Geman GDP, but Statista published a sobering overview showing the estimates of various instiutions (here).
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here) started at 9,132 points on 1st June, crashed to 8,837 points on 10th June before zig-zagging it’s way back to 8,989 on 29th June, thereby losing 143 points in the course of the month.
German industrial orders – after recovering with +0.9% (MoM, even 3.5% YoY) in February and gaining a considerable +5% (MoM, even 6.3% YoY) in March, but losing -3.8% (MoM, still 1.6% YoY) in April, gained 1.9% (MoM, even 6.2% YoY) in May 2026.
Germany’s industrial production, after decreasing by -0.3% (MoM, 0.0% YoY) in February, a further decline of -0.7% (MoM, even -2.8% YoY) in March, before gaining a minor 0.4% (MoM, still -0.5% YoY) in April and another 0.9% (MoM, still flatlining YoY) in May 2026.
Also, German exports, after gaining a considerable 3.6% (MoM, still 2.9% YoY) in February, another 0.5% (MoM, even 1.9% YoY) in March, increased by 0.9% (MoM, even +3.6% YoY) in April and, again, by 0.9% (MoM, even 6.1% YoY) in May 2026.
For other German KPI’s, I refer you, first, to the usual (but now „refurbished“ (cf. here) „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here), but also to the new IWH Forecasting Dashboard and the DATEV Mittelstandsindex.
The German Target 2 balance lost a rather significant 22bn in June 2026 and ended at Euro 1,043bn. The German inflation-rate continued to feel the spillover effects from the Gulf-War: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September 2024, re-increased to 2.6% in December 2024. After 2.1% in January , 1.9% in February, the rate increased to 2.7% in March, to 2.9% in April, stabilising at 2.6% in May and further decreasing to 2.3% in May 2026 (each YoY).
The German Labor market is still not recovering: Unemployment, after 6.4% in March, 6.4% in April, unemployment fell to 6.3% in May and to 6.1% in June 2026 (all MoM). „There has been little change in the labor market. Unemployment is falling only slightly, and employment subject to social security contributions continues its slight downward trend,” said Andrea Nahles, Chair of the Executive Board of the Federal Employment Agency (BA). German CORPORATE insolvency procedures, after a „decrease“ by 0.7% in February, an increase by an incredible 15.8% in March, gained another 7.1% in April 2026 (all YoY, cf. my most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators were again not in sync in June: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) lost some 1.4 points to 50.0 points in June 2026. There against, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations gained more than 20 points to +10,5 points in June 2026. Also, the ifo Business Climate Index gained another 0.6 points and increased to 85.6 points in June 2026. The GfK-consumer index increased by 3.4 points to -27.7 points in June 2026.
To sum up: ten years ago, the world and Germany was different – this is for sure. And – though the naked figures from 10 years ago do not seem too different – the German economy was in much better shape. Especially the job-shedding in Germany’s industrial heart – automotive – continues unabated. Not only Volkswagen is planning to close plants in Germany (cf. here). An unprecetended move. But this should come as no surprise as the very Mrs. Merkel herself warned against such development already nine years ago in 2017 (here)!