The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…

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The implicit forecast of my last monthly report, „southbound“ (cf. here) has not really materialised in November. Although leading pundits reduced their forecast for German growth and the DAX did lose another roughly 200 points, exports remain rather strong, jobless-figures are unbelievably low, etc. Hence, also the decline takes some time. But see for yourself:

„The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 12. Dezember 2018 – Exporte // Pleiten // Sentiment

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Guten Morgen,

Während die Politik  – einem „Käfig voller Narren“ nicht unähnlich – durch die wahrscheinlich wichtigste Phase der Weltpolitik seit dem 2. Weltkrieg stolpert, ist sich die deutsche Wirtschaft scheinbar noch nicht so sicher, wohin die Reise geht. Die Gefühls-Indizes sind uneinheitlich, während die harten Fakten zumindest für Deutschland sehr positiv aussehen. Weltweit aber fallen einige maßgeblichen Indizes seit längerem und eher drastisch: So der Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, der Kupfer– oder der Ölpreis. Sprich, für Deutschland sieht es (noch) gut aus, für die Weltwirtschaft eher weniger. Und diese Entwicklung wird an Deutschland als Exportnation nicht spurlos vorbeigehen. „Morning Briefing – 12. Dezember 2018 – Exporte // Pleiten // Sentiment“ weiterlesen

The German economy in October 2018 – southbound

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Yep, as predicted in my last monthly report, „(economic) autumn“ (cf. here) has finally arrived in Germany. Amid political tensions after Chancellor Merkel announced here demise as leader of Germany’s conservative party, there is mounting evidence that the German economy has peaked somewhere in the previous months. But let’s have a closer look at the details:  „The German economy in October 2018 – southbound“ weiterlesen

The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?

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Well, the German economy is currently doing well, when you look at the figures for exports, unemployment or industrial orders. However, from the perspective of inflation or industrial production it does not look to great. The outlook for the foreseeable future, however, seems to be rather measly, if you agree with our government. Hence, after a not-so-clear August (here), the September might prove to be the start of an economic autumn, as the following figures show:  „The German economy in September 2018 – the start of (economic) autumn?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in June 2018 – mixed picture

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The „cracks“ in the German economy described in May seem to widen in some areas, but to heal in others. Hence, a crash is at least not imminent from the early warning indicators, June rather presents a mixed picture: „The German economy in June 2018 – mixed picture“ weiterlesen

The German economy in March 2018 – Weakness ahead?

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Also in comparison with February, March 2018 does not seem to be the month of recovery but rather a mixed bag if not the first signal of another bumby road ahead: „The German economy in March 2018 – Weakness ahead?“ weiterlesen

The German economy in February 2018 – a dent only?

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Well, well, at least, we will soon have a new government. That is the good news for the month. The economy, though, did not do so well in the last month, especially in comparison with January 2018: „The German economy in February 2018 – a dent only?“ weiterlesen