Insolvenzen – Seite 6

Morning Briefing – 15. April 2021 – Die deutsche Wirtschaft – ein Märchen?

Guten Morgen,

Nach dem (zwangsweisen) Ausscheiden von Herrn Lars Feld aus den sog. „Wirtschaftsweisen“ scheint Skepsis nicht mehr die vorherrschende Stimmung zu sein. Vielmehr geht das Gremium trotz des erneuten Lockdowns, dessen Länge nicht absehbar ist, weiterhin von einem Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft von 3% in diesem Jahr aus und gründet diese „Prognose“ auf die Hoffnung für ein starkes Wachstum im zweiten Halbjahr (hier). Aber schon diese 3% nehmen sich im Vergleich zu den Prognosen für die USA (6,5%, hier) und China („mindestens 6%“, hier) eher bescheiden aus. Aber auch das Potentialwachstum Deutschlands nach 2021 dürfte gegenüber diesen „Lokomotiven“ immer weiter zurückbleiben, wie die nachfolgende Übersicht zeigt:

The German economy in February 2021 – Lockdown 3.0 looms…

After not too bad of a start into the year (here) hopes were (and are still) high that the German economy would have a a decent start into the year. However, as lockdown 3.0 looms (did we even get out of „2.0“?), are there now clouds appearing on the economy’s horizon? For that let’s take a more detailed view into the German economy:

The German economy in January 2021 – not too bad of a start…

The December 2020 / year-end figures did not look too bad (cf. here), but how will the German economy fare in the ongoing lockdown? Let’s look into the German economy in some more detail for that:

The German economy in December 2020 – the year ends better than anticipated

After November showed that the German economy would get through the crisis in a „W“-shape at best (cf. here), it will be interesting to look into the December figures in order to assess the path ahead. But, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

The German economy in November 2020 – Merry W-shape recovery to all!

Before the Lockdown 2.0, the German German economy – after bottoming out in May (cf. here) – rebounded in June (cf. here), July (cf. here) and August (here) – and somewhat climaxed in September 2020 (here) –
– as proven with the October figures (here) . The hard lockdown seems to have taken a toll at the German economy already in November 2020. But, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

The German economy in October 2020 – Lockdown 2.0

Before the Lockdown 2.0, the German German economy – after bottoming out in May (cf. here) – rebounded in June (cf. here), July (cf. here) and August (here) – and somewhat climaxed in September 2020 (here). The question, hence, is whether in anticipation of the new Lockdown in Germany (which finally came into force only on 2 November 2020 but was heavily discussed since mid-October) already put a break on the rising economy in October. So, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

The German economy in September 2020 – climax?

Again, unfortunately, close to the eleventh hour of October I am able to review the fate of the German economy in September. And, again, the German German economy – after bottoming out in May (cf. here) – started its rebound in June (cf. here), the rebound gaining momentum in July (cf. here), and August (here), and continued its upward trend in September 2020. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

The German economy in August 2020 – licking its wounds

Literally at the eleventh hour of September I got to finish my review of the German economy in August – rather for purposes of chronology than actual information. Still it is a worthwhile look to behold, the German German economy – after bottoming out in May (cf. here) – started its rebound in June (cf. here), the rebound gaining momentum in July (cf. here), August figures overall seem to indicate a further strengthening of this trend. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail:

Morning Briefing 22. September 2020 – Alles wird gut

Guten Morgen,

Seit dem 29. Juli 2019 habe ich ja den Vorsatz, nicht nur als Cassandra durch die Gegend zu irrlichtern, sondern auch zu versuchen, konstruktive Wege aus dem Schlamassel aufzuzeigen (hier). Und tatsächlich bewegt sich was in Deutschland, was ich konstruktiver Weise mal aufzeigen kann:

The German economy in July 2020 – the sky is the limit! Sure?

After the German economy bottomed out in May (cf. here) and started its rebound in June (cf. here), most parameters indicate that the German economy is recuperating rather swiftly. But, hey, let’s look into the German economy in some more detail: