Time is running fast and already the end of September is nigh. Hence, time to chronologize August:
Well, the pundits now get excited on the potential growth of German GDP in 2026 – e.g. the Ifo-Insitute raised ceiling to 1.4%. Looks good, doesn’t it? Let’s look at this figure at the end of the year.
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here) started at 9,490 points on 3rd August, rising to 9,698 points on 28th of August before ending the month at 9,584 points on 31st August, thereby gaining 94 points in the course of the month.
German industrial orders – after losing -3.8% (MoM, still 1.6% YoY) in April, gaining 1.9% (MoM, even 6.2% YoY) in May, another 3.1% (MoM, even 6.5% YoY) in June, increased by another 2.5% (MoM, even 13.1% YoY) in July 2026.
There against, Germany’s industrial production, after a minor gain of 0.4% (MoM, still -0.5% YoY) in April and a further 0.9% (MoM, still flatlining YoY) in May and gaining a further 0.2% (MoM, but -0.1% YoY) in June, lost -1.1% (MoM, even -1.6% YoY) in July 2026. Also, German exports, after gaining 0.9% (MoM, even +3.6% YoY) in April, another 0.9% (MoM, even 6.1% YoY) in May and further 0.9% (MoM, 6.0% YoY) in June, lost -0.8% (MoM, but +6.1% YoY) in July 2026. For other German KPI’s, I refer you, first, to the usual (but now „refurbished“ (cf. here) „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here), but also to the new IWH Forecasting Dashboard and the DATEV Mittelstandsindex.
The German Target 2 balance gained a considerable 34bn in August 2026 and ended at Euro 1,071bn. The German inflation-rate continued to feel the spillover effects from the Gulf-War: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September 2024, re-increased to 2.6% in December 2024. After 2.9% in April, 2.6% in May, 2.3% in June, the rate increased to 2.8% in July and 2.9% in August 2026 (each YoY).
The German Labor market remains weak: Unemployment, after 6.3% in May and to 6.1% in June, the rate rose to 6.4% in July 2026 and 6.5% in August (all MoM). German CORPORATE insolvency procedures, after an increase by an incredible 15.8% in March, another gain of 7.1% in April, decreased by -2.0% in May and increased again by another 15.8% (all YoY, cf. my most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators were positively in sync in July: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) gained another 1.1 points to 53.3 points in August 2026. Also, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations gained another 7.9 points to +34.2 points in August 2026. Also, the ifo Business Climate Index gained another 2.1 points and increased to 88.8 points in August 2026. There against, the GfK-consumer index slightly decreased by 0.1 points to -29.4 points in August 2026.
To sum up: Due to the summer-time, we should not look too long at the decreasing „hard KPI“ of production and exports. After all, it’s summertime and people take holidays. Rather we should look – first order – at the increase in orders, and the relatively strong sentiment indicators. They indicate (sic!) that there might be – after all – an „autumn boom“. Let us keep our fingers crossed on that one. Because a slight scratch to the surface reveals that not all is well behind this picture – the second order. Allready the additional explanations accompanying the report of the Bundesagentur für Arbeit (above) show that the overall employment market probably remains weak even in an autumn boom (and beyond?). Also the further strong increase in corporate insolvencies points to an economy which is – at least – restructuring itself. Finally, the growth rate will be „bought“ by an immense wave of new debt – as I already pointed-out last month. Hence, the risk is that on the third order, we are currently hollowing-out our industry-base and there with the fundamentals of our prosperity until now.