The pace of change is accelerating – since the General Election on 23 February (cf. for the outcome here, in German), the shifts in German politics are breathtaking. Hopefully, at the end of March there will be a clearer picture and I will report acorrdingly. Hence, remember, the following data reflects the situation until end of February only:
The German Ministry of Economic Affairs confirms that the German GDP shrank by another 0.2% in 2024 and that the current growth is rather subdued (here, in German).
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here), started at 8,232 on 3rd February and – with some minor bumps in the process – rose to 8,638 on 28th February.
German industrial orders directly crased at the beginning of the year: after gaining 4.2% (MoM, also +1.0% YoY) in September, again decreasing by -1.5% (MoM, but +5.7% YoY) in October and by -5.4% (MoM, -1.7% YoY) in November, increasing by +6.9% (MoM, -6.3% YoY) in December 2024, orders declined by -7.0% (MoM, -2.6% YoY) in January 2025.
There against, Germany’s industrial production which has paused its „autumn boom“ last month now increased: after increasing by 2.9% (MoM, but -2.7% YoY) in August, production sank by -2.5% (MoM, even -4.6% YoY) in September and by another -1,0% (MoM, even -4.5% YoY) in October, gained +1.5% (MoM, -2.8% YoY) in November, before decreasing by -2.4% (MoM, even -3.1% YoY) in December 2024, but now gaining 2.0% (MoM, -1.6% YoY) in January 2025.
German exports, though, deceased: after increasing by 1.3% (MoM, +0.1% YoY) in August, exports decreased by -1.7% (MoM, -0.2% YoY) in September, -2.8% (MoM, -2.8% YoY) in October before increasing by +2.1% (MoM, but -3.5% YoY) in November and +2.9% (MoM, even +3.4% YoY) in December 2024, before now decreasing by -2.5% (MoM, -0.1% YoY). For other German KPI’s, I refer you to the „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here).
The German Target 2 balance gained another Euro 12bn (!) in February 2025 and ended at Euro 1,080 bn. The German inflation-rate decreased slightly: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September but has since re-increased to, first, 2.0% in October, then 2.2% in November, to finally 2.6% in December 2024, before decreasing to 2.3% in January, where it remained in February 2025 (each YoY).
The German Labor market does not really look healthy any more: After declining to 5.9% in November and rising to 6.1% in December 2024, the unemployment-rate further rose to 6.4% in January where it, too, remained in February 2025 (all MoM). There against, German insolvency filings now increased for 21 uninterrrupted times in a row: After 3.1% in May, 13.9% in June, 23.8% in July, 13.8% in August, 19.5% in September, 22.4% in October, 18,8% in November and 12.3% in December 2023, 26.2% in January, 18.1% in February, 12.3% in March, 28.5% in April, 25.9% in May, a „mere“ 6.3% in June, 13.5% in July, 10.7% in August, 13.7% in September, 22.9% in October, 13.8% in December 2024, they further increased by 14.1% in January and 12.1% in February 2025 (all YoY; cf. my then most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators wer not in sync: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose by another 1.5 (!) points to 46.5 points in February 2025. Also, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations gained more than 16 points and increased to 16.5 points in February 2025. The ifo Business Climate Index remained nearly unchanged at 85.2 points in February 2025. The GfK-consumer index, slightly decreased to -22.6 points in February 2025.
To sum up: Although the „hard“ as well as the „soft“ KPI remained rather undecided in February, the overall picture remains subdued and does not give reason to increased optimism. So far, so not good. Let’s hope that we can make out some silver linings in the following issue.