ZEW – Seite 2 – legonomics

The German economy in November 2023 – towards a not so happy end

The „b(e)acon of hope“ in July (here) proved to be rather a cognitive dissonance in August (here) which led to a slippery slope in September (here) and in October, hope was definitely fading for the German economy (here). So, let’s take a closer look at the how the year nears its closing in November:

The German economy in October 2023 – fundamentals do not support hope

The „b(e)acon of hope“ we were experiencing in July (here) proved to be rather cognitive dissonance in August (here), but seemingly, the pundits did not realise that sentiment (indices) might prove to be a slippery slope in September (here). But, hey, let’s take a closer look at the how German economy slipp****, mh, fared in October:

The German economy in September 2023 – slippery sentiment

Already in May the German economy was going south with astonishing speeed (here), however, larger parts of the public only realised that in June (here) but were still seeing a „b(e)acon of hope“ in July (here) and did not really lose their cognitive dissonance in August (here). So, let’s take a closer look at the how German economy fared in September:

The German economy in August 2023 – still in Lala Land or is cognitive dissonance easing?

After being too optimistic in March (here), realising that we have seen the best (for 2023) already (here) in April and that the German economy seems to go south with astonishing speeed in May (here), larger parts of the public finally realised in June that the economy is indeed stalling (here), but in July still seeing a „b(e)acon of hope“ (here) . So, let’s take a closer look at the German economy whether this hope is still warranted in August:

The German economy in July 2023 – b(e)acon of hope?

After being too optimistic in March (here), realising that we have seen the best (for 2023) already (here) in April and that the German economy seems to go south with astonishing speeed in May (here), larger parts of the public finally realised in June that the economy is indeed stalling (here). And it does not seem to get better in July, But, let’s take a closer look at the German economy:

The German economy in June 2023 – stalling

The German economy in May 2023 – the green deal?

While we were seemingly a little too optimistic in March (here) and I feared in April that we have seen the best already (here), the German economy seems to go south with astonishing speeed now. But hey, let’s take a closer look at how it fared in May:

The German economy in April 2023 – have we seen the best already?

After enjoying a „promising start“ in January (here), a serious damper in February (here), the March outlook (here) proved to be too optimistic – even considering my caveats already at that time. But hey, let’s take a closer look:

The German economy in March 2023 – looking good at the surface…

…and maybe not rotten to the core. Still, to forecast the development of the German economy is more an art than science: While we enjoyed a „promising start“ in January (here), the February figures (here) put a serious damper on it. So let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in March 2023 to see how its going:

The German economy in February 2023 – the light at the end of the tunnel…

…might indeed prove to be from an incoming train and not – as I summised the previous months (while I thought in the summer 2022 that we were nearing a recession in 2023, a silver-lining already occured in October (here) which got even brighter in November (here) and December 2022 (here)) – and not the silver lining of a „promising start“ I made out in January (here). But hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in February 2023 to find out more: