volkswirtschaftliche Entwicklung – Seite 2

Deutschland 2024 – das Ende der Illusionen

„2024, das Jahr, in dem Narrative reißen,
Illusionen platzen und hohle
Versprechen implodieren werden.“
Alexander Kissler via Twitter (hier).

Während man zu Beginn des Jahres 2023 zumindest noch (einigermaßen hoffnungsvoll) in die „trübe Glaskugel“ schauen durfte (hier), wurde das Ausmaß der Malaise Deutschlands im Laufe des Jahres zunehmend deutlich und am Beginn des Jahres 2024 ist die Sicht in die Glaskugel ziemlich klar: es steht nicht gut um Deutschland, insbesondere die deutsche Wirtschaft – leider über 2024 hinaus.

The German economy in December 2023 – end of the illusion

As the newly published German GDP-figures (see below) drastically prove, the year 2023 did indeed not not provide for a happy-end for the German economy (as predicted in November, here). As painful as it is, let’s take a closer look at some of the German „performance indicators“:

The German economy in November 2023 – towards a not so happy end

The „b(e)acon of hope“ in July (here) proved to be rather a cognitive dissonance in August (here) which led to a slippery slope in September (here) and in October, hope was definitely fading for the German economy (here). So, let’s take a closer look at the how the year nears its closing in November:

The German economy in October 2023 – fundamentals do not support hope

The „b(e)acon of hope“ we were experiencing in July (here) proved to be rather cognitive dissonance in August (here), but seemingly, the pundits did not realise that sentiment (indices) might prove to be a slippery slope in September (here). But, hey, let’s take a closer look at the how German economy slipp****, mh, fared in October:

China – is the economy stupid?

Meinen letzten Post zur Wirtschaftslage in China habe ich Mitte Januar 2022 abgesetzt (hier) und seitdem hat sich die wirtschaftliche Lage nicht gerade zum Besseren gewendet, die damaligen Themen sind die gleichen, wie die heutigen – nur größer und drängender, wie die nachfolgenden Ausführungen zeigen.

The German economy in September 2023 – slippery sentiment

Already in May the German economy was going south with astonishing speeed (here), however, larger parts of the public only realised that in June (here) but were still seeing a „b(e)acon of hope“ in July (here) and did not really lose their cognitive dissonance in August (here). So, let’s take a closer look at the how German economy fared in September:

The German economy in August 2023 – still in Lala Land or is cognitive dissonance easing?

After being too optimistic in March (here), realising that we have seen the best (for 2023) already (here) in April and that the German economy seems to go south with astonishing speeed in May (here), larger parts of the public finally realised in June that the economy is indeed stalling (here), but in July still seeing a „b(e)acon of hope“ (here) . So, let’s take a closer look at the German economy whether this hope is still warranted in August:

The German economy in July 2023 – b(e)acon of hope?

After being too optimistic in March (here), realising that we have seen the best (for 2023) already (here) in April and that the German economy seems to go south with astonishing speeed in May (here), larger parts of the public finally realised in June that the economy is indeed stalling (here). And it does not seem to get better in July, But, let’s take a closer look at the German economy:

The German economy in June 2023 – stalling

The German economy in May 2023 – the green deal?

While we were seemingly a little too optimistic in March (here) and I feared in April that we have seen the best already (here), the German economy seems to go south with astonishing speeed now. But hey, let’s take a closer look at how it fared in May: