Schlagwort: Target 2

It is quite interesting how fast situations and perceptions can change: While I thought in the summer 2022 that we were nearing a recession in 2023, a silver-lining already occured in October (here) which got even brighter in November (here) and December 2022 (here). Hence, the question now is, will we be able to avoid a recession alltogether? In order to assess the situation, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in January 2023:

The war in Ukraine was still raging, but even in Germany Corona became old news as 2022 drew to a close. Hence, the hope which came up in October already as to the fate of the German economy (here) stabilised in November (here) and got even better at the end of one of the most disturbing years I personally encountered in my not so short life-span. But, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in December 2022:

The war in Ukraine is still ongoin though there wasn’t too much actual movement throughout the month – probably due to Rasputitsa(for regular updates, cf. here, in German). The hope which came up last month as to the fate of the German economy (here) seems to somewhat stabilise now albeit on a low level. So, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in November 2022:

While the war at the eastern and southern front is (not very much but still) progressing in favour of Ukraine, Russia continued its attacks on civil infrastructure unabated (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). After hope for the German economy was (thus) already in short supply in July (cf. here), everything seemed to be in dire straits in August (here) and despair was brewing in September (here), it might be that things won’t indeed turn out as bad as originally thought, at least some hope came up in the course of the month. But, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in October 2022:

While the war at the eastern and southern front is still very much progressing in favour of the Ukraine, Russia, under the leadership of Mr. Putin has – seemingly over recognising that a military victory is not feasible – startet to destroy Ukraine’s civil infrastructure (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). Hope was already in short supply in July (cf. here) and everything seemed to be in dire straits in August (here). So, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in September 2022:

The war in Ukraine is progressing very nicely – for the Ukraine, for the Russians not so much (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). Despite (or because?) of this development, hope was already in short supply in the last month (cf. here). Now, with our Ukrainian brothers (and sisters) in arms recovering lost ground, we seem to be in dire straits. But hey, let’s take a closer look:

The war in Ukraine currently sees a change of initiative – from Russia to Ukraine (for regular updates, cf. here, in German) which seem to validate the optimism Germany’s economy developed already in June 2022 (cf. here). Still, the question is whether this optimism is warranted – which I denied. So, let’s take a closer look:

While the war in Ukraine continued unabated (for regular updates, cf. here, in German), the German economy developed some hope in May 2022 (cf. here). Hence, the question in June is whether this optimism was and is still warranted. So, let’s take a closer look:

After the reality of the war in Ukraine (for regular updates, cf. here, in German) has set-in in Germany, making for a mixed (economic) bag in April (cf. here) the question is how the German economy fared in May 2022. So, let’s take a closer look: