Well, again it is the 11th hour – so without further ado, let’s get into the nuts & bolts of the German economy:
The IMF joined the choir and raised it’s expectations for Germany’s GDP growth to 1.3% (cf. also here, in German). We’ll see.
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here) started at 9,479 points on 1st September, then zig-zagging its way down to 9,179 points on 30 September, therebey losing exactly 300 points.
German industrial orders – after gaining 1.9% (MoM, even 6.2% YoY) in May, another 3.1% (MoM, even 6.5% YoY) in June and a further 2.5% (MoM, even 13.1% YoY) in July, crashed by -10.6% (MoM, but still +2.7% YoY) in August 2026.
There against, Germany’s industrial production, after gaining 0.9% (MoM, still flatlining YoY) in May, another 0.2% (MoM, but -0.1% YoY) in June, losing -1.1% (MoM, even -1.6% YoY) in July, gained 2.0% (MoM, even 2.3% YoY) in August 2026. There against (sic!), German exports, after gaining 0.9% (MoM, even 6.1% YoY) in May and further 0.9% (MoM, 6.0% YoY) in June, losing -0.8% (MoM, but +6.1% YoY) in July, lost another 0.8% (MoM, but 6.2% YoY) in August 2026. For other German KPI’s, I refer you, first, to the usual (but now „refurbished“ (cf. here) „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here), but also to the new IWH Forecasting Dashboard and the DATEV Mittelstandsindex.
The German Target 2 balance lost roughly 67bn (!) in September 2026 and ended at Euro 1,004bn. The German inflation-rate, meanwhile, is continously rising: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September 2024, re-increased to 2.6% in December 2024. After 2.3% in June, the rate increased to 2.8% in July, 2.9% in August and 3.3% in September 2026 (each YoY).
Although the unemployment rate dropped below 3m again, the German Labor market remains weak: Unemployment, after 6.1% in June, the rate rose to 6.4% in July 2026 and 6.5% in August, before falling to 6.4% in September (all MoM). German CORPORATE insolvency procedures, after an increase by 7.1% in April, a decrease by -2.0% in May, another increase by 15.8% in June, again, increased by 8.0% (all YoY, cf. my most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators were positively in sync in September: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) gained another 0.6 points to 53.9 points in September 2026. Also, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations gained another 0.5 points to 34.7 points in September 2026. Also, the ifo Business Climate Index gained another 1.1 points and increased to 89.9 points in September 2026. Finally, also the GfK-consumer index increased by 2.6 points to -26.8 points in September 2026.
To sum up: GDP-forecast up, hard-KPI’s (with the exception of orders) up, job-market not too weak, sentiment indices in sync on the rise. So, the hope formulated last month (here) for some kind of „autumn boom“ seems to materialise. Fragile as it might be. Let’s hope that this boom will carry us a bit – we all need some breathing space.