While I ended my last Monthly on at least a small positive note namely that the unemployment would fall below 3m again in September (cf. here) that would remain one of the few good news for September. But, hey, let‘s get straight into the details:
The IMF position on the growth of the German GDP rather is a slap into the face of the German government: While the Federal Goverment still insists on a growth of more than one percent for the German economy in 2026, the IMF is much more pessimistic and only forecasts a moderate growth of 0.9% in 2026 (here and comment here, in German). Both agree on a 0.2% growth for Germany in 2025 (which I do not see, tbh).
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here) started at 9,005 points into the month, crashed to 8,740 points mid-month before rallying back to 8.946 points on 30 September 2025 – thus only losing around 59 points in the course of the month.
German industrial orders firmly remain in a downward spiral: after increasing by 0.6% (MoM, 4.8% YoY) in April, orders started decreasing by -1.4% (MoM, but still +5.3% YoY) in May, another -1.0% (MoM, but +0.8% YoY) in June, -2.9% (MoM, even -3,4% YoY) in July and then by -0.8% (MoM, but +1.5% YoY) in August 2025.
Also, Germany’s industrial production – hopefully due to the summer holidays – further continued its zig-zag-course but crashed badly:: after decreasing by -1.4% (MoM, even -1.8% YoY) in April, growing by 1.2% (MoM, still 1.0% YoY) in May, again decreasing by a considerable -1.9% (MoM, even -3.6% (!) YoY) in June, production gained a respectable +1.3% (MoM, +1.50% YoY) in July before crashing by a catastrophic -4.3% (MoM, still -3.9% YoY) in August 2025.
German exports, too, took another hit: after decreasing by -1.7% (MoM, -2.1% YoY) in April and by another -1.4% (MoM, but +0.4% YoY) in May, exports expanded by 0.8% (MoM, even +2.4% YoY) in June, before again receding by -0.6% (MoM, but +1.4% YoY) in July and another -0.5% (MoM, even -0.7% YoY) in August 2025.
For other German KPI’s, I refer you, first, to the usual „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here), but also to the new IWH Forecasting Dashboard and the DATEV Mittelstandsindex.
The German Target 2 balance lost around Euro 11bn in September 2025 and ended at Euro 1,049bn. The German inflation-rate accelerated further: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September 2024 but has re-increased to again to 2.6% in December 2024, before again decreasing to 2.0% in June 2025, where it remained in July before going back to 2.2% in August and now to 2.4% in September 2025 (each YoY).
The German Labor market eased a bits: After decreasing by a marginal -0.1% to 6.3% in April, to 6.2% in May unemployment remained at this level in June before rising to 6.3% in July, to 6.4% in August, before decreasing to 6.3% again in September 2025 (all MoM), thereby crossing the 3m-mark for the first time since 2025 (here, in German). German insolvency filings further increased: After increasing by „only“ 5.7% in March and 3.3% in April, then falling by -0.7% in May, before again increasing (moderately) by +2.4% in June, filings increased by 19.2% in July by another 11.6% in August and again by 10.4% in September 2025 (all YoY; cf. my then most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators – with the exception of ZEW -were negatively in sync: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slightly decreased by 0.3 points to 49.5 points in August 2025. There against, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations gained 2.6% and rose to 37.3% in September 2025. There against, the ifo Business Climate Index, lost 1.2 points and decreased to 87.7 points in September 2025. Also, the GfK-consumer index, further decreased by another -1.8 points to -23.5 points in September 2025.
To sum up: The German labor market eased a bit and the ZEW indicates that not all is bad in Germany. But that‘s mainly it for the good news. The rest is – if not abysmal, like exports – at least disturbing. Not the concrete figures alone, but rather the trends that continue since years now.
The only hope is that economists and politicians alike abandon their the ostrich-like behaviour (well explained here, in German) and get a unified picture across to the German people about the real status and prospects of the German economy. Currently, there are still enough faith healers offering their soothing services to the folks (cf. only here). But even authors, who constructively describe measures on how to better the situation still do not pay enough attention to the downside-risks (cf. here). We are at a stage of a „polycrisis“ – which means that we are essentially acting in the proverbial quicksand instead of the ceteris paribus world we in the West came to appreciate in the 2010s.