…yet also the month’s end. Hence, at the last hour, let’s go for the JANUARY details of the German economy:
The Bundesbank predicts an increase for the German GDP of 0.6% (here), the IFO-Institute predicts 0.8% (here), the IW (which is rather linked to employers) foresees a growth of up to 1% (here), the IMK (which has close ties to German unions) even 1.2% (here), the (state-owned) KfW-Bank even 1.5% (here, all in German). However, between 0.1% and 0.3% of this staggering growth will be due to two (2!) Public Holidays falling on weekends (here, in German).
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here) started at 9,193 points on 2nd January and – after further rising to 9,523 points on 13th January – the index crashed to 9,201 on 21st January, then gained a bit and further crashed to 9,107 points on 29th January before ending the month exactly where it started – at 9,193 points. Much adue for zip.
German industrial orders – after decreasing by -0.8% (MoM, but +1.5% YoY) in August, increased by +1.1% (MoM, but -4.3% YoY) in September and +1.5% (MoM, but -0.7% YoY) in October before „exploding“ to +5.6% (MoM, even +10.5% YoY!) in November and a further +7.8% (MoM, even +13.0% YoY) in December 2025. Again, this inscrease is mainly driven by large orders according to Destatis. When excluding those orders, the overall increase only amounts to +0.9%. This month, though, the increase should not be attributed to defence.
There against, Germany’s industrial production, after crashing by a catastrophic -4.3% (MoM, still -3.9% YoY) in August, and growing by +1.3% (MoM, aber -1.0% YoY) in September, by another 1.8% (MoM, still 0.8% YoY) in October and by +0.8% (MoM, also 0.8% YoY) in November, now decreased by -1.9% (MoM, -0.6% YoY) in December 2025.
German exports, though, increased: after receding by -0.6% (MoM, but +1.4% YoY) in July and another -0.5% (MoM, even -0.7% YoY) in August, exports gained +1.4% (MoM, even 2.0% YoY) in September, another +0.1% (MoM, even +4.2% YoY) in October before decreasing by -2.5% (MoM, still -0.8% YoY) in November, but again increasing by +4.0% (MoM, still 2.7% YoY) in December 2025.
For other German KPI’s, I refer you, first, to the usual „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here), but also to the new IWH Forecasting Dashboard and the DATEV Mittelstandsindex.
The German Target 2 balance gained some 10bn in January 2026 and ended at Euro 1,033bn. The German inflation-rate is increasing once more: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September 2024 but has re-increased to again to 2.6% in December 2024, and since then taken a zig-zag course, resulting in 2.4% in September, 2.3% in October where it remained in November, before decreasing to 1.8% in December 2025 and re-increasing to 2.1% in January 2026 (each YoY).
The German Labor market is strained: Unemployment rose to 6.4% in August, before decreasing to 6.3% in September, to 6.2% in October and to 6.1% in November, before increasing to 6.2% in December 2025 and now further increasing to 6.6% in January 2026 (all MoM). Destatis did indeed stop to publish the most recent insolvency filings, hence, I can only publish that according to Destatis, German CORPORATE insolvency filings increased by 0.4% in November (!) 2025. The IWH insolvency trend predicts a decline in corporate insolvencies in January 2025 of -8% compared to the previous month, but 4% more than in January 2025. Compared to an average January from 2016 to 2019 – i.e. before the coronavirus pandemic – the current figures are expected to be 54% (!) higher. (all MoM; cf. my most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators were again de-synced in January: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) gained 2.1 points to 49.1 points in January 2026. Also, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations gained more than13 points and rose to 59.6 points in January 2026. Only the ifo Business Climate Index remains unchanged at 87.6 points in January 2026. The GfK-consumer index decreased by 3,5 points to -29.6 points in January 2026.
To sum up: It is an open secret that there will only be some minor growth in Germany and even that only under excepional good circumstances in 2026. At the end of February we know that we will most probably avoid a gas shortage in this winter – which would have had a desastrous effect on the German economy. However in January even this was far from clear.
Due to the deteriorating situaion I abstained from my usual prophecies I normally post elsewhere – but gave some practical guidelines for desaster-preparation (here, in German). Not only because I think it fits the Zeitgeist but also because people started to ask me about such things beginning in the last quarter of 2025.