Jeez, again there is not really much month left for the summary of German economics in August. Hence, let’s get straight to the details:
As far as the German economic institutes are concerned, German GDP will only grow marginally this year (+0.1%) and somewhat in 2026 (+1,3), but mainly due to the record-debt-pool (here in German).
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here) started with a crash into the month – losing around 239 points from the last trading day of July, the DAX started at 8,776 points on 1st August, regained 9,149 points on 19 August before again receding to 8.954 points on 29 September – hence gaining 178 points in the course of the month.
German industrial orders seem to remain in a downward spiral: after increasing by 3.6% (MoM, even 3.8 YoY) in March, by another 0.6% (MoM, even 4.8% YoY) in April, then decreasing by -1.4% (MoM, but still +5.3% YoY) in May and another -1.0% (MoM, but +0.8% YoY) in June, industrial orders went further south with -2.9% (MoM, even -3,4% YoY) in July 2025.
There against, Germany’s industrial production remained unfazed by the summer holidays (thereby further continuing ist zig-zag-course of the previous month)s: after increasing by 3.0% (MoM, -0.2% YoY) in March, decreasing by -1.4% (MoM, even -1.8% YoY) in April, again growing by 1.2% (MoM, still 1.0% YoY) in May, again decreasing by a considerable -1.9% (MoM, even -3.6% (!) YoY) in June, production gained a respectable +1.3% (MoM, +1.50% YoY) in July 2025.
German exports, though, took another hit: after increasing by 1.1% (MoM, even 2.3% YoY) in March before decreasing by -1.7% (MoM, -2.1% YoY) in April and by another -1.4% (MoM, but +0.4% YoY) in May, exports expanded by 0.8% (MoM, even +2.4% YoY) in June, before now again receding by -0.6% (MoM, but +1.4% YoY) in July 2025.
For other German KPI’s, I refer you, first, to the usual „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here), but also to the new IWH Forecasting Dashboard and the DATEV Mittelstandsindex.
The German Target 2 balance gained Euro 17bn (!) in August2025 and ended at Euro 1,060bn. The German inflation-rate accelerated a bit: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate decreased to finally 1.6% in September 2024 but has re-increased to finally 2.6% in December 2024, before again decreasing to 2.0% in June, where it remained in July before going back to 2.2% in August 2025 (each YoY).
The German Labor market sends the first distress-signals: After 6.4% in February and also in March, unemployment decreased by a marginal -0.1% to 6.3% in April, to 6.2% in May where it remained in June before rising to 6.3% in July and now to 6.4% in August 2025 (all MoM), thereby crossing the 3m-mark for the first time since 2025 (here, in German). German insolvency filings againincreased: After increasing by 12.1% in February, „only“ 5.7% in March and 3.3% in April, then falling by -0.7% in May, before again increasing (moderately) by +2.4% in June, filings increased by 19.2% in July and another 11.6% in August 2025 (all YoY; cf. my then most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators were positively in sync: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased by another 0,7 points to 49.8 points in August 2025. There against, the ZEW Indicator for business expectations lost some 17 points and ended at 34.7 points in July 2025. the ifo Business Climate Index, gained 0.4 points and rose to 89.0 points in August 2025. Also, the GfK-consumer index, further decreased by -1.4 points to -21.7 points in August 2025.
To sum up: In my last essay on this subject I hoped to be wronged with my fears for a the coming autumn (cf. here), but the first indications seem to fit the picture: Although the number of unemployed will sink below 3m again in September (here, in German), it does not need a futurologist to foresee that the unemployment rate will safely surpass the 3m-mark for at least most of the winter season. The real question is whether there will be enough of a spring boom to again push this mark below 3m, let’s say in April or May. If not, misery will add to the pain. Hence, it is superimportant to get the debt incurred into productive use: If the German politicians and administration were able to blow the self-inflicted blockade on spending for infra-structure (and military), the German economy might kick-start. Hopefully so.