While I had still some hope left for an autumn upswing at the end of last month (here), that hope is now totally gone. But hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in September 2024 in order to find out why:
Last month’s already sober statement of the German Ministry of Economics and Climate appears in another light, after the ministry had to admit that Germany’s economy will experience it’s second recessionary year in a row (here). With an overall German GDP again declining by probably -0.2%.
The German DAX price index (for an explanation, why I prefer this index, cf. here), starting at 7,272 points on 2nd September, crashed again first (like in the previous month) to 7,017 points on 10 September, before rising strongly to 7,481 points on 27 September, entering the next volatility cycle just before month-end, ending the month slightly lower at 7,424 points.
Latest available data on German industrial orders for August already seems to foreshadow the incoming malaise: after continually decreasing since March, first by -0.4% (MoM, -5.8% YoY) in March, by another -0.2% (MoM, still -1.6% YoY) in April and by another -1.6% (MoM, even -8.6% YoY) in May, orders then increased by +3.9% (MoM, but still -11.8 YoY) in June and by +2.9% (MoM and also by +3.7% YoY) in July, before declining by -5.8% (MoM, -3.9% YoY) in August 2024. There against, Germany’s industrial production resumed its upward trend: after decreasing by -0,4% (MoM, even -3.3 YoY) in March, -0.1% (MoM, -3.9% YoY) in April and even by –2.5% (MoM, -6.7% YoY) in May, production rose by +1.4% (MoM, but still -4.1% YoY) in June, again decreased by -2.4% (MoM, even -5.3% YoY) in July, before again increasing by 2.9% (MoM, but -2.7% YoY) in August 2024. Also, German exports continued their upward trend: after increasing by 0.9% (MoM, +1,2% YoY) in March and 1.6% (MoM, 1.9% YoY) in April, exports decreased by -3.6% (MoM, -1.6% YoY) in May and -3.4% (MoM, even 4.4% YoY) in June before increasing by +1.7% (MoM, but still -1.2% YoY) in July and now by a further 1.3% (MoM, +0.1% YoY) in August 2024. For other German KPI’s, I refer you to the „Destatis Deutschland-Dashboard“ (here) and the „Data Commons (Germany)“ (here).
The German Target 2 balance lost roughly Euro 2bn in August 2024 and ended at Euro 1,073bn. The German inflation-rate further decreased below the 2%-threshold for: starting from its peak of 10.4% in October 2022, the rate started to decrease, first to 10.0% in November, to 8.6% in December 2022, again increased to 8,7% in January (2023), where it remained (8.7%) in February, before slumping down to 7.4% in March and to 7.2% in April, before „crashing“ to 6.1% in May, going up again to 6.4%, decreasing to 6.2% in July and to 6.1% in August, even to 4.5% in September, to 3.8% in October and 3.2% in November, before re-climbing to 3.7% in December 2023, re-decreasing to 2,9% in January 2024, 2.5% in February and to 2.2% in March , where it remained (2.2%) in April, increasing to 2.4% in May, decreasing to 2.2% in June, increasing again to 2.3% in July, declining 1.9% in August , and finally to 1.6% in September 2024 (each YoY).
The German Labor market showed some weak signs of improvement, the unemployment rate, 5.8% in June, 6.0% in July and 6.1% in August, again declined slightly to 6.0% in September 2024 (all MoM). The Bundesagentur, though, is lowering expectations: „Unemployment and underemployment did fall in September, but significantly less than usual this month. The start of the autumn recovery on the labour market has therefore been sluggish this year„. Unsurprisingly, German insolvency filings increased for the 17th time in a row and again in the two-digits: After 3.1% in May, 13.9% in June, 23.8% in July, 13.8% in August, 19.5% in September, 22.4% in October, 18,8% in November and 12.3% in December 2023, 26.2% in January, 18.1% in February, 12.3% in March, 28.5% in April, 25.9% in May, a „mere“ 6.3% in June, 13.5% in July, 10.7% in August and 13.7% in September 2024 (all YoY; cf. my most recent comment, here, in German).
The leading German sentiment indicators, were, once more, in sync with the exception of the consumer index: The German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) lost another 1.8 points and stood at 40.6 points on 1 October 2024. The ZEW Indicator for business expectations lost another staggering 15.6 points and sank to 3.6 points in September 2024. Also, the ifo Business Climate Index lost another 1.1 points and ended at 85.4 points in September 2024. Finally, the GfK-consumer index, recovered slightly and increased by 0.7 points to -21.2 points in September 2024.
To sum up: Although we still see a mixed bag of hard and soft KPI in the roundup of September, the „fog of economy“ (like the „fog of war“) is beginning to rise – and fast: The German Government’s confession of another recessionary year marks the „end of the beginning“ for me. Why end? Because it will mark the turning point, where it became apparent even to the less trained eye that the German Sonderweg taken in the last years was in fact a cul-de-sac. Throughout the last eight to ten years anomalies became apparent – at least for the trainied eye. These ever growing anomalies consisted of an infrastructure becoming more and more dysfunctional, the inability to cope with the growing immigration, not to talk about integration, while the workforce was already diminishing. The Governments confession will now break the dam regarding the „illusion of prosperity“ (as Daniel Stelter has aptly described this (typical?) German tendency to block out reality in favour of a more romantic view). And indeed, already a few days later, the Handelsblatt Research Institute forecasted „that the German economy will shrink slightly not only this year but also next year. This would be the third decline in a row – a first in Germany’s post-war history.“ (here, in German). Why „beginning“? As stated before, the last eight to ten years where the phase, where the problems accumulated but were ignored. Now, at last and least, the crisis may no longer be ignored or labelled as „tranformation“. We are now entering the „resistance phase“ (here) – which will be messy – but at least we will (if we are willing to) get a clearer picture of the real challenges awaiting us.
„The Governments confession will break the dam regarding the „illusion of prosperity“ (Daniel Stelter) Indeed, already a few days later, the Handelsblatt Research Institute forecast „that the German economy will shrink slightly not only this year but also next year. This would be the third decline in a row – a first in Germany’s post-war history.“ With this „end of the beginning“ we enter the „resistance phase“ – which will be messy – but at least we will (if we are willing to) get a clearer picture of the real challenges awaiting us.“