DAX – Seite 4 – legonomics

The German economy in October 2022 – things are never as bad as they seem, hopefully

While the war at the eastern and southern front is (not very much but still) progressing in favour of Ukraine, Russia continued its attacks on civil infrastructure unabated (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). After hope for the German economy was (thus) already in short supply in July (cf. here), everything seemed to be in dire straits in August (here) and despair was brewing in September (here), it might be that things won’t indeed turn out as bad as originally thought, at least some hope came up in the course of the month. But, hey, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in October 2022:

The German economy in September 2022 – despair is brewing

While the war at the eastern and southern front is still very much progressing in favour of the Ukraine, Russia, under the leadership of Mr. Putin has – seemingly over recognising that a military victory is not feasible – startet to destroy Ukraine’s civil infrastructure (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). Hope was already in short supply in July (cf. here) and everything seemed to be in dire straits in August (here). So, let’s take a closer look on how the German economy fared in September 2022:

The German economy in August 2022 – dire straits?

The war in Ukraine is progressing very nicely – for the Ukraine, for the Russians not so much (for regular updates, cf. here, in German). Despite (or because?) of this development, hope was already in short supply in the last month (cf. here). Now, with our Ukrainian brothers (and sisters) in arms recovering lost ground, we seem to be in dire straits. But hey, let’s take a closer look:

The German economy in July 2022 – hope is in short supply now

The war in Ukraine currently sees a change of initiative – from Russia to Ukraine (for regular updates, cf. here, in German) which seem to validate the optimism Germany’s economy developed already in June 2022 (cf. here). Still, the question is whether this optimism is warranted – which I denied. So, let’s take a closer look:

The German economy in June 2022 – still prevailing optimism creates its own risks

While the war in Ukraine continued unabated (for regular updates, cf. here, in German), the German economy developed some hope in May 2022 (cf. here). Hence, the question in June is whether this optimism was and is still warranted. So, let’s take a closer look:

The German economy in May 2022 – optimism and hope warranted?

After the reality of the war in Ukraine (for regular updates, cf. here, in German) has set-in in Germany, making for a mixed (economic) bag in April (cf. here) the question is how the German economy fared in May 2022. So, let’s take a closer look:

The German economy in April 2022 – slow recognition

In April 2022 the war in Ukraine (for regular updates, cf. here, in German) was also dominating the economic headlines in Germany, while Corona slowly faded from the front pages. After the reality of the war and other factors hindering a swift ecomic upturn had seemingly set in with the German economy in March 2022 (here), the question is how it fared in April. So, let’s take a closer look:

The German economy in March 2022 – Reality is setting in

The war of Russia against Ukraine dominates the headlines for over a month now (cf. here for the current situations update, in German). And while other nations and the largest parts of Europe had their respective „freedom day“ a while ago, Germany was still fighting its own (unwinable) war against Corona – until the envisioned vaccination-obligation came crushingly down in the German parliament (as to the current German corona-status, cf. here, in German). The war as well as the (retarded) liberation from Corona will surely take a large toll on the German economy in the long run. In February (here), though, the German economy did not look too bad. But, hey, let’s take a look at immediate consequences, if any:

The German economy in February 2022 – like Wile E. Coyote?

Although the case-numbers of people infected with corona were actually increasing in February (cf. here), this issue was put on a backburner even before Russian troups actually started their attack against the Ukraine on 24 February 2022. Hence, even if it was clear that there would be no „freedom day“ as such, even Germany was opening up again. But then, Russia shocked the world. The consequences for the German economy are still not clear. So, hey, let’s take a look at the immediate pre-war status of the German economy:

The German economy in January 2022 – from „distressed“ to „war“?

The short-term outlook for 2022 was not look to bad at the end of last month, given the „hard KPIs“ of orders, production and exports at the end of December 2021 (here). Also, the „end“ of the pandemic indeed begins to materialise. However, rising inflation and a potentially escalating conflict in the Ukrainian might serve as a party crusher. But hey, let’s take a more detailed view on the January 2022 figures before jumping to conclusions: