The German economy in April 2017 – keep on rollin’…


And indeed – at least in Germany and Europe – the train of economic growth kept rolling throughout April (as hoped for in the end of March):

After closing at 12,312 points on Friday, 28th March 2017, the German DAX again gained some 120 points and closed at 12,438 points on Friday, 28th April, setting a new all-time high. Hence, the rally continued unabated through April.

According to the most recent figures, German exports in February 2017 reached more than Euro 102bn, thereby rising by 0.8% MoM and by 3.1% on a YoY-basis. However, again, the Target-2-balances for Germany further increased (in sync with the exports) to Euro 843 bn! I skip my usual warnings on the potential effects…

In April 2017, the German inflation-rate reached the 2%-threshold again, after 1.6% in March.

German unemployment-rate, again (!), hit another low in April with 5.8%, the number of unemployed fell by another 93,000 to 2.569m (MoM) and by 175,000 (YoY). Needless to say, that this is a new record and these low levels were not seen since the German re-unification…

In accordance with the strong German economy, insolvency rates in Germany further decreased by 1.6% (YoY).

Also in accordance with these hard facts, the polls suggest a further constant growth of the German economy despite the dark clouds hanging over the world-economy: Although the German (Industrial) Purchasing Managers‘ Index (PMI) slightly decreased from 58.3 points in March to 58.2 in April 2017, it remains on a record-level, as some forums rightly point out. The Ifo business climate index rose from 112.4 points in March to 112.9 points in April 2017. The ZEW Indicator for the current economic sentiment made the biggest jump, gaining 2.8 points from 77.3 points in March to 80.1 points in April 2017.

One message might literally pour some water into the wine*: Especially in the southern part of Germany, the night-frost was so strong that fruits and vegetables (and vine!) took such a hit that in certain regions the total harvest seems to be lost, triggering a call for national funding. This event – not really discussed in the media – might come back to haunt us.

At last: Being a little late with my report this month (due to increasing workload!) I had the luxury to have a glimpse into May: And now, Macron has won the French Presidential elections, the conservative party won the general elections in Schleswig-Holstein (a German state) while the AfD has not nearly reached a two-digit result! So, my bet is that the DAX will reach 13,000 points tomorrow.

A good night from Germany!

*A typical German false friend: „Wasser in den Wein zu schütten“ actually means something like „to spoil the party“ – but I love this one…

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