ZEW – Seite 7 – legonomics

The German economy in February 2019 – disappointing early indicators

In February 2019, the German economy – if not paralysed (as in the last month, cf. here) – presented disappointing early indicators such as orders and production while other (rather lagging) indicators such as unemployment or corporate insolvencies still show record-low-levels. Let’s look at the development in more detail:

The German economy in January 2019 – Paralysis?

Although indications that the German economy ended 2018 in negative territory kept piling up (cf. here for the previous month), the sentiment indicators’s downward path of earlier months accelerate in sync with the industrial production and orders, Destatis just announced that the German economy „only“ stalled in the last quarter of 2018. Let’s look at the development in more detail:

The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?

First of all, I wish all of you a Happy New Year and hope that you had a Merry Christmas with some time to lay back and relax after a year of relentless growth in Germany. The new year, though, does not paint a too glossy picture: Not all figures are in, but it seems that the economy stopped growing at the end of 2018. Also the sentiment-indicators are now facing south in sync and for months in a row and the DAX has reached „bear-territory“ at the end of the year. „The German Economy in December 2018 – Recession, anybody?“ weiterlesen

The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…

The implicit forecast of my last monthly report, „southbound“ (cf. here) has not really materialised in November. Although leading pundits reduced their forecast for German growth and the DAX did lose another roughly 200 points, exports remain rather strong, jobless-figures are unbelievably low, etc. Hence, also the decline takes some time. But see for yourself:

„The German Economy in November 2018 – not so fast (into the abyss)…“ weiterlesen

Morning Briefing – 12. Dezember 2018 – Exporte // Pleiten // Sentiment

IMG_5632 (2) (Quelle: Schatzi)

Guten Morgen,

Während die Politik – einem „Käfig voller Narren“ nicht unähnlich – durch die wahrscheinlich wichtigste Phase der Weltpolitik seit dem 2. Weltkrieg stolpert, ist sich die deutsche Wirtschaft scheinbar noch nicht so sicher, wohin die Reise geht. Die Gefühls-Indizes sind uneinheitlich, während die harten Fakten zumindest für Deutschland sehr positiv aussehen. Weltweit aber fallen einige maßgeblichen Indizes seit längerem und eher drastisch: So der Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, der Kupfer– oder der Ölpreis. Sprich, für Deutschland sieht es (noch) gut aus, für die Weltwirtschaft eher weniger. Und diese Entwicklung wird an Deutschland als Exportnation nicht spurlos vorbeigehen. „Morning Briefing – 12. Dezember 2018 – Exporte // Pleiten // Sentiment“ weiterlesen